I was intrigued by a note put out by Cornerstone Macro this morning which noted that, “the extreme outcomes pitched last year by various folks have now evolved into a base case scenario for today’s investors.” Recency bias “Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.”
Speaking of the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman won it for showing that people respond more forcefully to loss than gain: Finally, I want to remind investors that better or worse typically matters more to markets than good or bad. Another is to highlight why leading indicators are more important than lagging indicators when trying to assess the economic (and market) landscape. One is to caution investors not to dwell on the past and why the most ferocious bears often get the most attention. I want to do several things in this report. I was the final keynote speaker at the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, FL last week and although I wasn’t present for their sessions, there were several notable bears who took the stage before me, generally pointing to the risk we were in the midst of another 2008 (or worse). But remember, there is an apt and famous phrase on Wall Street: “The stock market has called nine of the past five recessions.” Apocalyptic forecasts abound Notwithstanding the sharp equity market rally late last week, the market has certainly been ringing the alarm bell, with the worst January start to a year since 2009. The recession drumbeat has picked up tempo, which is to be expected given the signal coming from several market-based indicators, the contraction in manufacturing, and the anemic reading on (the lagging) fourth quarter U.S. Better or worse tends to matter more than good or bad.Focus more on leading indicators than lagging indicators.Recession risk is up, but beware of the cacophony of apocalyptic forecasts.I cover that near the end of the video but you can reply to this email or text/call me direct for more details on this program. I'm also opening up our BOD SQUAD SUMMER SLIM DOWN NUTRITION COACHING PROGRAM. I did a VIP MASTER NUTRITION CLASS last Thursday with some of our clients. 80% of your results comes from nutrition and this is where people struggle the most. Maybe you have been a yo yo dieter or used to be in great shape but the weight has crept up and you do not even recognize yourself anymore. Let's let go of the things of old in the rearview mirror and look forward in the windshield to the new great things you can and will accomplish in 2022. Reply to this email to set up a complimentary SUCCESS SESSION with me. The bell has not rung.Ģ022 is still your year, , so let's go seize it! What are those "great plans" when it comes to fitness you still want to accomplish? But YOU can change your future by the actions you take. What's done is done and you can't change the past. And maybe, like a lot of people, things haven't gone the way you had hoped. I'm sure you had great plans to get in great shape and conquer the world at the beginning of 2022. "Don't let your past control your present to abort your future"Īs I always say , it's not how you start but how you finish. One of my good friends told me the other day a great quote. So why do we go through life like that? Looking in the "rearview mirror" all the time. I guarantee you will get into an accident. There is a reason the windshield in your car is much bigger than your rearview mirror.Ĭould you imagine driving only looking in the rearview mirror? They are both stuck, letting their past keep them in a "proverbial neutral" never moving forward in life. She doesn't have good memories but for over the 20+ years I have known her, she is still bitter and using that as an excuse for where she is at in life.
Then there's another friend who still complains about injustices by her family in the past. He's literally stuck in the 80s and NEVER talks about his future. I have a friend who always talks about his "glory days" Behold, I am doing a new thing now it springs forth, do you not perceive it? I will make a way in the wilderness and rivers in the desert." " Remember not the former things, nor consider the things of old.
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